Labor shortage crisis! The Australian construction industry needs to add at least 500,000 workers!
墨尔本
一周房产资讯速递
Melbourne Weekly Property News
▪ 拍卖清盘率保持稳定
Auction clearance rates remain stable
▪ 劳动力短缺将影响房屋建设目标
Labor shortage to impact housing construction targets
1.拍卖清盘率保持稳定，无视加息
Auction clearance rates remain stable
在传统的春季销售旺季，挂牌数量大幅增加，雄心勃勃的买家们计算着最近一次现金利率上涨的成本，全国范围内的拍卖清盘率仍保持稳定。
Despite a significant increase in listings during the traditional spring sales season, and ambitious buyers calculating the costs of the recent cash rate hike, auction clearance rates across the country remain stable.
根据数据公司 CoreLogic 的初步统计，全国范围内的拍卖清盘率为69%，与前一周持平。悉尼的清盘率为70.4%，而前一周为71.9%。在墨尔本，拍卖成功率从60.8%上升至67.7%，最后定格在72%。墨尔本杯日对周末稍有影响，但过去一周挂牌量增加了一倍多。
According to preliminary statistics from data company CoreLogic, the national auction clearance rate stands at 69%, unchanged from the previous week. Sydney's clearance rate is 70.4%, down from 71.9% the previous week. In Melbourne, the auction success rate increased from 60.8% to 67.7%, ultimately settling at 72%. While the Melbourne Cup had a slight impact on the weekend, listings increased by more than double over the past week.
尽管过去一周清盘率强劲，但由于房价增长率显示出放缓的迹象，最近的加息再次引发了担忧，即借贷成本上升可能扼杀今年房地产市场的上升势头。
Despite the strong clearance rates in the past week, concerns arise due to signs of a slowdown in the growth rate of property prices, triggered once again by the recent rate hike, suggesting that rising borrowing costs may curb this year's real estate market momentum.
房地产市场分析师SQM Research创始人Louis Christopher表示，虽然过去一周的强劲清盘率尚未反映出这种担忧，但明年房价仍然存在风险。“在之前的周期中，清盘率不会立即下降，而是在利率上升的几周后开始下降，”他说。因此，要么卖家更愿意满足市场需求，要么买家没有被现金利率的上涨吓倒。”
Louis Christopher, founder of real estate market analyst SQM Research, acknowledges that although the robust clearance rates in the past week do not yet reflect these concerns, there are still risks for next year's property prices. He states, "In previous cycles, clearance rates do not immediately fall but begin to decline several weeks after interest rates rise. So either sellers are more willing to meet market demand, or buyers are not deterred by the rise in cash rates."
在周五的货币政策声明中，澳大利亚央行指出，预定的抵押贷款支付（即利息加预定本金）在9月季度已经增至家庭可支配收入的约10%，这一比例高于先前估计的2008年约9.5%的最高水平。
In Friday's monetary policy statement, the Reserve Bank of Australia noted that scheduled mortgage payments (interest plus scheduled principal) had increased to about 10% of household disposable income in the September quarter, a level surpassing the estimated previous high of around 9.5% in 2008.
Christopher表示，日益增加的抵押贷款负担可能会让一些潜在买家失去购买资格，即使他们还没有因利率上升而推迟购买。但他表示，经济衰退的最大风险因素是失业率上升。他表示：“如果我们看到就业增长停滞和失业率上升，市场就存在明显且现实的风险。这通常意味着市场上不会有那么多合格的买家，这会给房价带来下行压力。”
Christopher suggests that the increasing burden of mortgage payments may disqualify some potential buyers, even if they have not yet deferred their purchases due to rising interest rates. However, he emphasizes that the most significant risk factor for an economic downturn is an increase in the unemployment rate. He states, "If we see stagnant employment growth and an increase in the unemployment rate, there are clear and realistic risks in the market. This typically means there won't be as many qualified buyers in the market, putting downward pressure on house prices."
2. 劳动力短缺将影响房屋建设目标
Labor shortage to impact housing construction targets
由于高薪基础设施行业对关键行业和技能的激烈竞争，开发商和建筑商普遍表示，澳大利亚要实现120万套新房的目标将变得困难。
Due to intense competition from the well-paying infrastructure sector for key industries and skills, developers and builders widely express concerns that Australia will find it challenging to achieve the goal of constructing 1.2 million new homes.
Master Builders ACT首席执行官Hopkins先生对《澳大利亚金融评论报》表示：“我们对于在需要兴建新住房的时候，房地产行业的技能短缺感到担忧。如果我们不解决主要政府项目对其他行业的劳动力的影响，我们就无法达到《国家住房协议》所规定的新建120万套住房目标的目标。”
Michael Hopkins, CEO of Master Builders ACT, told the Australian Financial Review, "We are concerned about the skills shortage in the property industry when we need to build new homes. If we don't address the impact of major government projects on the workforce in other industries, we won't be able to achieve the target of building 1.2 million new homes set out in the National Housing Accord."
今年8月，联邦和州政府将集体住房目标从2029年新建100万套住房扩大至120万套，但行业内警告称，由于规划体系的功能失调和劳动力短缺，这一目标将难以实现。
In August, the federal and state governments collectively expanded the housing target from building 1 million new homes by 2029 to 1.2 million, but industry warnings suggest that this goal will be challenging due to dysfunctional planning systems and labor shortages.
澳大利亚新屋建设水平原本就很低，六月份季度新屋开工量降至40,720套，为十年来最低。高房价和高租金导致通货膨胀，因此国家迫切需要增加住房供应，以降低通胀并满足不断增长的人口需求。
Australia's new home construction levels were already low, with the June quarter seeing a record low of 40,720 new homes. High housing prices and rents contribute to inflation, prompting an urgent need for increased housing supply to lower inflation and accommodate the growing population.
Hopkins指出，长期来看，澳大利亚需要扩大其技能基础。他表示，到2026年11月，澳大利亚建筑业需要增加50万名工人，仅首都地区就需要增加7000名工人。要实现这一目标，需要改善职业培训并鼓励更多女性参与建筑业。然而，开发商和建筑商表示，当前澳洲的住房目标受到威胁，因为计划在未来18个月内投入800亿澳元用于基础设施投资，只有三分之一用于住房。
Hopkins emphasizes that Australia needs to expand its skill base in the long run. He states that by November 2026, the Australian construction industry needs to add 500,000 workers, with the capital region alone requiring an additional 7,000 workers. Achieving this goal necessitates improving vocational training and encouraging more women to participate in the construction industry.However, developers and builders argue that the country's housing goals are further threatened as one-third of the planned $80 billion infrastructure investment over the next 18 months is earmarked for housing.
社会和民用基础设施项目的成本比商业建筑更高。一位来自一家大型开发商的负责人表示，提供每小时40澳元的住宅开发商无法与提供每小时70澳元的基础设施建筑商竞争。这导致了可用人员的减少。在墨尔本，私人开发商MAB Corporation表示，来自公共基础设施项目的竞争正在推高中高密度住房开发的成本。
The cost of social and civil infrastructure projects is higher than that of commercial buildings. A representative from a large developer states that residential developers offering $40 per hour cannot compete with infrastructure builders paying $70 per hour. This has resulted in a reduction in the available workforce. In Melbourne, private developer MAB Corporation indicates that competition from public infrastructure projects is driving up the costs of developing high-density housing.
MAB首席运营官David Hall则表示：“对于我们目前的MAB项目来说，为了完成该项目，一家建筑商每天需要190个工种，包括抹灰工、窗户安装工等，但他们目前只能完成120个工种。这自然会导致项目交付的延误。我们的建筑商通常会导致大约20%的贸易资源延误。”
David Hall, COO of MAB, notes, "For our current MAB projects, one builder currently requires 190 trades per day, including plasterers, window installers, and others, but they are only able to secure 120 trades. This naturally leads to project delays, causing around 20% of trade resource delays."
图片来源：James Brickwood，图为the Snowy 2.0抽水蓄能项目是从澳大利亚首都领地住房部门挖走工人的基础设施项目之一
澳大利亚的住宅建筑商正面临着来自基础设施行业的激烈竞争，这种竞争不仅仅来自商业建筑领域。根据最新的住房行业报告，9月季度的抹灰成本较6月份上涨了21%。
Australia's residential builders, not only from the commercial construction sector. According to the latest housing industry report, plastering costs increased by 21% in the September quarter compared to June.
Wayne Fornari，悉尼抹灰公司WB Fornari Interior Linings的总监表示：“每个人都很忙。昆士兰州和墨尔本有着大量的建筑，尤其是大型高层建筑。我们的很多工人都涌向了这些地区，导致了团队数量的减少，项目完成速度的减缓。”
Wayne Fornari, Director of WB Fornari Interior Linings, a Sydney plastering company, comments, "Everyone is busy. There's so much construction in Queensland and Melbourne, especially large high-rise buildings. Many of our workers have flocked to these areas, resulting in a reduction in team numbers and a slowdown in project completion."
社会和民用基础设施项目的成本相对于商业建筑更高，这使得住宅开发商难以与支付更高工资的基础设施建筑商竞争。这进一步加剧了人才短缺问题，尤其是在政府项目推高了人才需求的情况下。
The cost of social and civil infrastructure projects is relatively higher than that of commercial buildings, making it difficult for residential developers to compete with infrastructure builders offering higher wages. This exacerbates the talent shortage, especially when government projects increase the demand for skilled workers.
BMD集团首席执行官Scott Power表示，私营部门的客户需要相同的技能，但为了成本和营利性考虑，无法比政府开出更高的报酬，这对住房开发项目的交付造成了困扰。他强调，政府应该认识到这些问题，并为其支付相应的补贴。
Scott Power, CEO of BMD Group, states that private-sector clients require the same skills but cannot offer higher compensation than government clients for cost and profitability reasons. This poses challenges for the delivery of housing development projects. He emphasizes that the government should recognize these issues and provide appropriate subsidies.